When I began reading, Life After Television, I felt as if I was reading George Orwell’s 1984 or watching an episode of “The Jetsons”. This feeling basically accumulated from the author’s ability to make predictions that are radically far from what unfolded in the future. Although his predictions were not as extreme as families living in space or cruising around in flying cars, I had to laugh at some of Gilder’s predictions purely because he was so far off from reality. I do not blame him for his inability to predict the technical future; it was unimaginable to estimate the type of influence computers would have on our society and culture. Gilder supports this, saying, “only by comprehending the full force of the computer juggernaut can one anticipate the future of the information age” (189). The following essay examines the arguments in his book, Life After Television and compares them to the present. It concludes by looking at the similar themes with McLuhan’s book, The Medium in the Massage.
Four years after the 1990 addition of, Life After Television, Gilder realized that many of his predictions were wrong. In his afterward, he gives a more accurate prediction of what will happen with TV, the media industry and computer technology. For the purpose of argument and analysis, I will ignore this section as I examine his arguments made in the 1990 addition. Additionally, I do not feel that his misinterpretation of the future reflects a lack intellect or aptitude. This book displays a great deal of knowledge of computers and an understanding of people. In fact, many of his arguments that were made eighteen years ago have become a reality. For example,
The most common personal computer of the next decade will be a digital cellular phone. Called a personal digital assistants, among many other coinage, they will recognize speech and navigate streets… collect mail and the news and the paycheck, connecting to thousands of databases of all kinds. (20)
In 2007 the worldwide PDA market rose 39.7% from 2006. This number is predicted to grow even more. (Cozza 1). At the time Gilder may have been seen as radical for making the above comment, but his prediction is becoming a reality.
I choose to compare his arguments to the future to emphasize the vast changes in our culture due to the influence of technology.
Where Gilder Went Wrong
“There will be no room for televisions or phones, or for the companies that make them” (24). “The industries organized around these two machines will not survive the century”(26).
Gilder failed to realize the opportunity for change and growth in the TV and video industry. I agree with Gilder that if the TV industry did not change they would not have survived, but changed happened. The 90’s saw substantial grown in the cable industry that has continued to the present. For example, in 1990 there was one cable sports network, ESPN. Currently, ESPN alone has eleven networks and these only represent a portion of sports cable channels. The broadcasting and cable industry has had a compound growth rate of 4.0% in the years 2003-2007.
Increased viewer ship and the influence of digital and high definition televisions have led to continued growth in television sales. According to the Datamonitor report on the TV and Video industry, total revenues in the US had an annual growth rate of 10.2% from 2003-2007. The majority, 75.6% , of this revenue comes from TV sales.
Although traditional telephone sales are down, there has been an explosion of mobile sales. In 2006, they generated a total of $21.4 billion and a total volume of 143.2 million units (Datamonitor).
Gilder also did not anticipate the blending of these technologies with one another. Now cable companies offer “triple play” packages to consumers. The cable providers are now one-stop-shops for cable television, phone service and Internet. Mobile companies such as AT&T and Verizon offer mobile service in addition to the other three services.
Cable and broadcasting companies have realized the opportunities associated with the Internet. Many networks, such as ABC, CW, and NBC, offer their shows for free to online users. ESPN has created a channel that is only offered through a broadband connection. Finally, iTunes allows networks to sell their episodes over the internet.
“TV defies the most obvious fact about its customers—their prodigal and efflorescent diversity” (15).
Cable TV is a representation of how the TV industry recognizes the diversity of the United States. There are hundreds of cable networks. DirecTV offers over 650 cable channels in a variety of different packages (DirectTV.com). These channels have a purpose to serve specific types of people. A more general channel, ABCFamily, offers a variety of programming for different members of a family. In comparison, TVG Horseracing, is a specific channel for people who are interested in horse betting.
Cable providers have also recognized the diversity offering certain cable packages to fit individuals interest. For example, they offer family packages, sports packages and Spanish packages to fit the unique needs of their customers.
“Computers pose no threats to newspapers” (139)
Between 2003-2007, the compound annual consumption rate of newspapers has been -1.73% (Datamonitor). This is not good news to the newspaper industry. According to Datamonitor, “Substitute threats are strong in the newspaper market. The Internet is one such”. Newspaper initially struggled to make the transition onto the Internet. They have made progress and do have a presence online. However, they are faced with intense competition with news channels, blogs and other publications that, because of the Internet, are easier for readers to accesses. Also newspapers have struggled to establish profitable business models.
“High-definition PC displays will benefit text far more than images.” (140) “The new technologies thus favor text over pure video because text… is far the best way to convey information and ideas.” (150)
In last week’s discussion with Andrew Ferguson about Twitter, he made a joke that our society is returning to the age of the caveman where we communicate strictly by images. He was making fun of the fact that the new technology reduces communication down to 140 characters. However, there is some reality in his comment. Most trend on the internet are moving away from text and towards video. One example is the influence and popularity of YouTube. Another example is the video banner ads that are placed all over websites.
To showcase high definition devices images, not text, are used. When a consumer walks into BestBuy the sales associate does not show an image filled screen or a news story, rather he shows a game on ESPN which is much more effective to sell the customer.
Gilder and McLuhan both agree that new communication technologies would have a profound impact on our society. McLuhan said the age of information technology has an effect “on you”, “your family”, “your neighbor”, “your education”, and “your government”, making the “earth so small” (McLuhan 79). The following demonstrates Gilder’s similar thoughts as McLuhan.
Life After Television did not merely predict a technical revolution; it predicted a cultural upheaval. Moving authority from elites and establishments to creators and customers, the new technologies drastically change the cultural balance of power. Shifting the optimal target of commercial art from vulgar tastes and sensations to special interests, curiosities, hobbies, ambitions, and artistic aspirations, digital multimedia machines will transform the marketplace and elevate the culture. Only by addressing the new opportunities will companies prosper and prevail (205.)
Gilder’s book was compelling to me because it emphasized the technological progress we have made since it was published. It forced me to evaluate our current technological state compared to eighteen years ago. It also showed how industries that are facing a decline in their business can transform, creating new innovations, and redirect the industry into one that is flourishing.
Works Cited
"Broadcasting & Cable TV in the United Sates, Industry Profile." Datamonitor. Sept. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008
Cozza, Roberta. "Report Highlight for Dataquest Insight: Worldwide PDA and Smartphone Shipments Grow 26% in 1Q07." 19 June 2007. Gartner Inc. 2 Nov. 2008
"Mobile Phones in the United States, Industry Profile." Datamonitor. Jan. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008
"Newspapers in the United States." Datamonitor. Sept. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008
"TV & Video in the United States, Industry Reprt." Datamonitor. June 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008
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