George Gilder - Jason Andrews

Life After Television by George Gilder read to me as a prophecy. An oracle spouting information, George Gilder seems to be condemning the world or in this case certain electronics. As readers we are given predictions of a future past the 1990’s where computers overwhelm information technology and bury the telephone and television in its metaphorical dust. And while Gilder’s arguments can easily be supported with medias evolution, many loose relevance—or desire reinterpretation—with the growth of our media driven society. His focus on telephones, televisions, and newspapers will become the focus of my evaluation of the accuracy surrounding Gilder’s predictions today.

George Gilder condemns telephone networks quickly arguing the fatal flaw of telephony is the networks it resides upon. Copper wires (essentially “landlines”) in many ways have become almost obsolete. According to a U.S. Census 2006 American Fact Finder report released this week, over 5 million Americans do not have landline home phone service. That is 2 million more than when the statistic was first tracked in 2002. It seems that the capabilities of cellular service and price have created a market in which landlines are deemed inefficient or too costly. The major proponent to this is in fact Gilder’s primary argument, that airspace is limited. Telecommunication is even becoming scarce with the advent of programs such as AOL Instant Messenger or Skype. These Internet based programs provide users with free (aside from a service provider) means to communicate with text voice and even video. Once a traditional means for formal communication, videoconferences and interviews are becoming far more common that telephone use, while e-mail and scanners are almost eliminating the need for fax machines. This prediction of Gilder’s seems eerily correct to me however it is the only one I have found to ring completely true.

Identical to his prediction of telecommunications, Gilder continues his predictions with the death of television (big surprise there). “Optimized for a world in which spectrum or bandwidth was scarce—[TV. and telephones] are utterly unsuited for a world in which bandwidth is abundant,” he argues. And to a point he was and is correct. Television will eventually be constrained to a specific bandwidth capability, however networks have begun to anticipate this demise by creating websites containing streaming or prerecorded broadcasts for viewers to see online. The largest fault I find in Gilder’s predictions about television however is when he states, “TV ignores the reality that people are not inherently couch potatoes; given a chance, they talk back and interact”. He continues to argue choice; or rather the lack of choice in programming will eventually bore the viewer. Now let me introduce the wonderful invention of DVR or TIVO if you prefer. Two products with the same concept allowing the television viewer to customize his/her experience and choose their own preferred materials. I do believe that in years to come we may see the death of television, but I do not believe the concept will die it will only change mediums onto computer screens and online containers.

Finally Gilder says that newspaper will outlast it all. “Newspapers and computers are converging.” I believe no line in Gilder’s book is truer at this exact time. They are converging and that will be the only way newspapers survive. The material aspect of the printed word will eventually fail for newspapers as they transition into a digital age. They tablet medium for digital newspapers is as simple as a laptop, and the success of online news sources such as cnn.com or usatoday.com further push material newspapers away. The biggest danger the Gilder’s prediction I believe however, is in his own argument. “The secret of the success of the newspaper… [is that they] rely on the intelligence of the reader.” It is this intelligence that Gilder points to that has helped to spur the creation of blogs and programs such as Twitter. He gets close when mentioning Roger Fidler anticipation of a “daily us”, news shaped by collections of human editors. This evolution in news media could become the demise of the paper, striking down Gilder’s goliath of the technological century.

In conclusion, I was surprised with Life after Television. While a long and intense read, Gilder was astonishingly accurate with a lot of his predictions. Either they have come to fruition—the telephone— or are working their way there. Inspired by Gilder, I dare to make my own prediction based off the evolving technological world in which we reside. As the aura or the printed newspaper dies, so shall most print as a medium.