Thursday, November 6, 2008

Scott Turner's Life After Television Response

The edition I got of George Gilder’s Life After Television was the first; printed in 1990, nearly two decades ago. As you can imagine, a lot has changed since then. But for me that was the best part of reading the book (even though I would have liked to read the extra chapter, prologue and afterword to see what he had to say more recently) because it is interesting to see where he makes accurate predictions and at the same time not so much, but to all the while wonder if some of those other predictions may still come true. In this response I will examine his predictions and thesis, evaluate how they are true today, and asking about what we can expect in the future.

The basic premise of Life After Television is that the age of television, the mode of the master-slave, top-down model of creating and disseminating media that appeals to the lowest common denominator is dying and being replaced by a system that fosters creativity and involvement in democracy by creating a level playing field for everyone. I think that we can see in the past twenty years that this prediction has definitely come true, but it hasn’t really gone the way he thought it would or should.

In the introduction, he insists that “New governmental policies are imperative. The U.S. will have to adopt a genuinely new strategy in the technology race, moving entirely beyond television into a realm of new technology.” My only problem with this is that on the previous page he says that the government is in a “passionate siege of self-abuse,” with experts advocating new government bureaucracies and business consortia. I simply fail to understand how he thinks new policies and initiatives be put into place that won’t simply conform to maintaining the status-quo and become puppets of the lobbyists of the current telecommunications industry. They want television to remain very much at the forefront of broadcasting information and entertainment and will do anything to keep it so.

One of my biggest problems with the cable TV industry is that I can hop onto my computer, download the first season of Mad Men and watch them all straight through with the use of torrents or save them to my hard drive and watch them whenever I want with no commercial interruption. Considering that there has been so much controversy over the legality of such downloads, take for example Hulu.com, where users watch streaming television with minimal interrupted ads. In contrast, when I want to watch cable, I have a DVR to record the shows when I can’t sit in front of the television but am otherwise restrained to watching shows to whenever the television company decides I should. All on top of this, the remote control and the interface used to navigate through the cable box are prehistoric when compared to some of the browsers and capabilities a user has with a keyboard and mouse. To think that we used to laugh at pc-tv and internet TV. Now, this option is quite desirable!

The point here is that Gilder is absolutely right that telecomputers will fundamentally alter the consumption and production of media. Websites such as YouTube lets users upload videos they’ve created to share with whatever audience they want, with some creators raking in advertising revenue. Similarly, MySpace and iTunes let musicians upload their music directly to the site and as the many distinctly different audiences consume their media, they receive advertising returns. This is the type of individualism that has come that Gilder describes at the end of the second chapter, where he says “it will bring an eruption of culture unprecedented in human history.” But as he goes on to make the case that movies will only cost a quarter now, he completely failed to predict theYouTube phenomenon and the impact it would have.

But like I argued earlier, the problem is that government, under the pressure of media organizations like Time Warner and Verizon, seeks to very much control our telecommunications habits (whether it’s charging extra for more bandwidth or regulating the type and size of packets sent across ‘their’ cables), which is why the television industry is so behind technologically compared to the internet even though the latter’s promises are much greater. The good part is that we’re making inroads when it comes to issues like net neutrality (although disappointingly Obama supported the recent FISA legislation) and copyright licenses when it comes to creativity on the web through Creative Commons licensing. But YouTube and MySpace Music can’t save our entire culture and restimulate our capitalist competitiveness and put us on the forefront of the technology race like Gilder wants to argue. I agree with him when he says at the end of chapter 5 (the end of my book) that “a campaign to promote fiber optics would be simple and practical. It would be a sure winner. [It] could revitalize the American information economy and regain their central role in telecommunications.” The only problem is that nearly 20 years later nobody in the federal government seems to know squat about fiber optics. Instead it took a Google to assume the lead in laying the groundwork of a national fiber optic network.

A few quick more points to make before I call this response quits: Gilder’s predictions—and how they have come true—are very much the solution to the all-powerful, conglomerated type of media that Walter Benjamin tried to warn us about. And as this affects The Culture Industry, the individualism encouraged by the proliferation of culture Gilder predicted will likely enhance the prevalence of the Culture Industry, although it won’t be controlled by a monopolized few but instead many cultural icons competing for consumers (a good thing for the economy). And finally, during Gilder’s description of the creation of the microchip at the beginning of chapter two, I was very much reminded of Marshall McLuhan’s quote saying that “electronic circuitry is the extension of the central nervous system.” The question here is whether in a world so connected by the internet does that circuitry remain an extension of us or are we becoming an extension of it?

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

George Gilder's Life After Television, November 5

Please read George Gilder's Life After Television, especially his Prologue and Afterword, and spend extra time on Chapter 6, "Why Newspapers Will Prevail."

As you read, consider these questions: How accurate were Gilder's predictions? Does that matter in evaluating his work? How does his framework match up with those of Benjamin, Adorno & Horkheimer, and McLuhan? What's the most compelling aspect of his vision? The least?


Your responses are due by Tuesday, November 5, by 6pm ET. They should be posted to the blog no later than that time.

Thanks,

Nick



Tuesday, November 4, 2008

George Gilder - Jason Andrews

Life After Television by George Gilder read to me as a prophecy. An oracle spouting information, George Gilder seems to be condemning the world or in this case certain electronics. As readers we are given predictions of a future past the 1990’s where computers overwhelm information technology and bury the telephone and television in its metaphorical dust. And while Gilder’s arguments can easily be supported with medias evolution, many loose relevance—or desire reinterpretation—with the growth of our media driven society. His focus on telephones, televisions, and newspapers will become the focus of my evaluation of the accuracy surrounding Gilder’s predictions today.

George Gilder condemns telephone networks quickly arguing the fatal flaw of telephony is the networks it resides upon. Copper wires (essentially “landlines”) in many ways have become almost obsolete. According to a U.S. Census 2006 American Fact Finder report released this week, over 5 million Americans do not have landline home phone service. That is 2 million more than when the statistic was first tracked in 2002. It seems that the capabilities of cellular service and price have created a market in which landlines are deemed inefficient or too costly. The major proponent to this is in fact Gilder’s primary argument, that airspace is limited. Telecommunication is even becoming scarce with the advent of programs such as AOL Instant Messenger or Skype. These Internet based programs provide users with free (aside from a service provider) means to communicate with text voice and even video. Once a traditional means for formal communication, videoconferences and interviews are becoming far more common that telephone use, while e-mail and scanners are almost eliminating the need for fax machines. This prediction of Gilder’s seems eerily correct to me however it is the only one I have found to ring completely true.

Identical to his prediction of telecommunications, Gilder continues his predictions with the death of television (big surprise there). “Optimized for a world in which spectrum or bandwidth was scarce—[TV. and telephones] are utterly unsuited for a world in which bandwidth is abundant,” he argues. And to a point he was and is correct. Television will eventually be constrained to a specific bandwidth capability, however networks have begun to anticipate this demise by creating websites containing streaming or prerecorded broadcasts for viewers to see online. The largest fault I find in Gilder’s predictions about television however is when he states, “TV ignores the reality that people are not inherently couch potatoes; given a chance, they talk back and interact”. He continues to argue choice; or rather the lack of choice in programming will eventually bore the viewer. Now let me introduce the wonderful invention of DVR or TIVO if you prefer. Two products with the same concept allowing the television viewer to customize his/her experience and choose their own preferred materials. I do believe that in years to come we may see the death of television, but I do not believe the concept will die it will only change mediums onto computer screens and online containers.

Finally Gilder says that newspaper will outlast it all. “Newspapers and computers are converging.” I believe no line in Gilder’s book is truer at this exact time. They are converging and that will be the only way newspapers survive. The material aspect of the printed word will eventually fail for newspapers as they transition into a digital age. They tablet medium for digital newspapers is as simple as a laptop, and the success of online news sources such as cnn.com or usatoday.com further push material newspapers away. The biggest danger the Gilder’s prediction I believe however, is in his own argument. “The secret of the success of the newspaper… [is that they] rely on the intelligence of the reader.” It is this intelligence that Gilder points to that has helped to spur the creation of blogs and programs such as Twitter. He gets close when mentioning Roger Fidler anticipation of a “daily us”, news shaped by collections of human editors. This evolution in news media could become the demise of the paper, striking down Gilder’s goliath of the technological century.

In conclusion, I was surprised with Life after Television. While a long and intense read, Gilder was astonishingly accurate with a lot of his predictions. Either they have come to fruition—the telephone— or are working their way there. Inspired by Gilder, I dare to make my own prediction based off the evolving technological world in which we reside. As the aura or the printed newspaper dies, so shall most print as a medium.

Cassie Gladden's Response to Life After TV

When I began reading, Life After Television, I felt as if I was reading George Orwell’s 1984 or watching an episode of “The Jetsons”.  This feeling basically accumulated from the author’s ability to make predictions that are radically far from what unfolded in the future. Although his predictions were not as extreme as families living in space or cruising around in flying cars, I had to laugh at some of Gilder’s predictions purely because he was so far off from reality. I do not blame him for his inability to predict the technical future; it was unimaginable to estimate the type of influence computers would have on our society and culture. Gilder supports this, saying, “only by comprehending the full force of the computer juggernaut can one anticipate the future of the information age” (189). The following essay examines the arguments in his book, Life After Television and compares them to the present. It concludes by looking at the similar themes with McLuhan’s book, The Medium in the Massage.

 

            Four years after the 1990 addition of, Life After Television, Gilder realized that many of his predictions were wrong. In his afterward, he gives a more accurate prediction of what will happen with TV, the media industry and computer technology. For the purpose of argument and analysis, I will ignore this section as I examine his arguments made in the 1990 addition. Additionally, I do not feel that his misinterpretation of the future reflects a lack intellect or aptitude. This book displays a great deal of knowledge of computers and an understanding of people. In fact, many of his arguments that were made eighteen years ago have become a reality. For example,

 

The most common personal computer of the next decade will be a digital cellular phone. Called a personal digital assistants, among many other coinage, they will recognize speech and navigate streets… collect mail and the news and the paycheck, connecting to thousands of databases of all kinds. (20)

 

            In 2007 the worldwide PDA market rose 39.7% from 2006. This number is predicted to grow even more. (Cozza 1).  At the time Gilder may have been seen as radical for making the above comment, but his prediction is becoming a reality.

 I choose to compare his arguments to the future to emphasize the vast changes in our culture due to the influence of technology.

 

Where Gilder Went Wrong

 

“There will be no room for televisions or phones, or for the companies that make them” (24). “The industries organized around these two machines will not survive the century”(26).

 

Gilder failed to realize the opportunity for change and growth in the TV and video industry. I agree with Gilder that if the TV industry did not change they would not have survived, but changed happened. The 90’s saw substantial grown in the cable industry that has continued to the present. For example, in 1990 there was one cable sports network, ESPN.  Currently, ESPN alone has eleven networks and these only represent a portion of sports cable channels. The broadcasting and cable industry has had a compound growth rate of 4.0% in the years 2003-2007.

 

Increased viewer ship and the influence of digital and high definition televisions have led to continued growth in television sales. According to the Datamonitor report on the TV and Video industry, total revenues in the US had an annual growth rate of 10.2% from 2003-2007.  The majority, 75.6% , of this revenue comes from TV sales.

 

Although traditional telephone sales are down, there has been an explosion of mobile sales. In 2006, they generated a total of $21.4 billion and a total volume of 143.2 million units (Datamonitor).

 

Gilder also did not anticipate the blending of these technologies with one another. Now cable companies offer “triple play” packages to consumers. The cable providers are now one-stop-shops for cable television, phone service and Internet. Mobile companies such as AT&T and Verizon offer mobile service in addition to the other three services.

 

Cable and broadcasting companies have realized the opportunities associated with the Internet. Many networks, such as ABC, CW, and NBC, offer their shows for free to online users. ESPN has created a channel that is only offered through a broadband connection. Finally, iTunes allows networks to sell their episodes over the internet.

 

 

“TV defies the most obvious fact about its customers—their prodigal and efflorescent diversity” (15).

 

Cable TV is a representation of how the TV industry recognizes the diversity of the United States. There are hundreds of cable networks.  DirecTV offers over 650 cable channels in a variety of different packages (DirectTV.com). These channels have a purpose to serve specific types of people. A more general channel, ABCFamily, offers a variety of programming for different members of a family.  In comparison, TVG Horseracing, is a specific channel for people who are interested in horse betting.

 

Cable providers have also recognized the diversity offering certain cable packages to fit individuals interest. For example, they offer family packages, sports packages and Spanish packages to fit the unique needs of their customers. 

 

“Computers pose no threats to newspapers” (139)

 

Between 2003-2007, the compound annual consumption rate of newspapers has been -1.73% (Datamonitor). This is not good news to the newspaper industry. According to Datamonitor, “Substitute threats are strong in the newspaper market. The Internet is one such”.  Newspaper initially struggled to make the transition onto the Internet. They have made progress and do have a presence online. However, they are faced with intense competition with news channels, blogs and other publications that, because of the Internet, are easier for readers to accesses. Also newspapers have struggled to establish profitable business models.

 

High-definition PC displays will benefit text far more than images.” (140) “The new technologies thus favor text over pure video because text… is far the best way to convey information and ideas.” (150)

            In last week’s discussion with Andrew Ferguson about Twitter, he made a joke that our society is returning to the age of the caveman where we communicate strictly by images. He was making fun of the fact that the new technology reduces communication down to 140 characters. However, there is some reality in his comment. Most trend on the internet are moving away from text and towards video. One example is the influence and popularity of YouTube. Another example is the video banner ads that are placed all over websites.

 

            To showcase high definition devices images, not text, are used. When a consumer walks into BestBuy the sales associate does not show an image filled screen or a news story, rather he shows a game on ESPN which is much more effective to sell the customer.

 

Gilder and McLuhan both agree that new communication technologies would have a profound impact on our society. McLuhan said the age of information technology has an effect “on you”, “your family”, “your neighbor”, “your education”, and “your government”, making the “earth so small” (McLuhan 79). The following demonstrates Gilder’s similar thoughts as McLuhan.

 

Life After Television did not merely predict a technical revolution; it predicted a cultural upheaval. Moving authority from elites and establishments to creators and customers, the new technologies drastically change the cultural balance of power. Shifting the optimal target of commercial art from vulgar tastes and sensations to special interests, curiosities, hobbies, ambitions, and artistic aspirations, digital multimedia machines will transform the marketplace and elevate the culture. Only by addressing the new opportunities will companies prosper and prevail (205.)

 

            Gilder’s book was compelling to me because it emphasized the technological progress we have made since it was published. It forced me to evaluate our current technological state compared to eighteen years ago. It also showed how industries that are facing a decline in their business can transform, creating new innovations, and redirect the industry into one that is flourishing.

 

 

 

 

 

Works Cited

"Broadcasting & Cable TV in the United Sates, Industry Profile." Datamonitor. Sept. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008 .

Cozza, Roberta. "Report Highlight for Dataquest Insight: Worldwide PDA and Smartphone Shipments Grow 26% in 1Q07." 19 June 2007. Gartner Inc. 2 Nov. 2008 .

"Mobile Phones in the United States, Industry Profile." Datamonitor. Jan. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008 .

"Newspapers in the United States." Datamonitor. Sept. 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008 .

"TV & Video in the United States, Industry Reprt." Datamonitor. June 2008. Marketline. 1 Nov. 2008 .

Mary DelGrande - George Gilder

George Gilder
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Meg Luby's Response to Gilder

             This book was a swift and painful transition from the dry hilarity of Matthew Ferguson. From light humor with deeper meanings, suddenly we’re reading this book that is theories and insights trying to keep the reader interested with light humor. Which, frankly, it fails  at doing. I fell asleep reading this book no less then six times.  I cannot even begin to count the amount of times I had to reread a page in order to have what I read soak in at least a little. While I feel like I have a good grasp on what I read, I really can now just outline the 200 some pages I read, explaining with any specific clarity will simply not happen. Therefore, instead of trying to write you an analysis, I am going to respond with a fiction piece which is hopefully more encompassing of the general gist as well as some of the specific points I did dissect and also, happily, more my style. 

#

 

            “Thank you for joining us Ms. Fields,” says my professor dryly as I fail at sneaking into my seat unnoticed.

            “Er, no problem Professor Bates,” I chirp nervously, my boots squeaking and backpack nearly making me topple over as I maneuver through the tight aisle. I’m dripping from the rain which is causing my fellow students to sneer at me as I try to crunch into the back.

            “Life after Television”, he says ominously. The class stares at him blankly, eyes vacant of any form of thought, so after a beat he continues. “Ms. Fields?”

            I gulp. “Yes?”

            “What would you say is the encompassing idea of this work?”

            “Um…” Um Um Um Um Um. “That technology is like…moving past like… cables and junk?”

            Some of the previously dead students wake up and snicker. My Bate’s eyes roll back into his skull before returning to eye me warily. “Yes, I suppose we are moving beyond ‘cables and junk’. However, more to the point and central idea- yes, Ms. Maundrell?”

            “Well, it’s like he says in the prologue,” says a girl toward the front. Everyone immediately turns to the prologue of the book. A convergence of Corpses, I read. Gross. “Executives all too often seem unaware that their basic technologies are dead.” She says. I stare at her blankly. As she continues. “And then later, they are going to need to evolve into the new technological world.”

            “A good point and nice summary,” says Bates. I feel like I understand the words but not the meaning. Like the dots simply won’t connect. Before I can open my mouth to ask however, a boy towards the back speaks up.

            “Professor, when was this written?”

            I raise my hand anxious to answer something I know. Bates nods at me. “1990” I say, a bit smugly. “He published in 1993 but the original drafts were written up earlier.”

            “’Kay,” says the boy slowly. “So, he pretty much predicted devices like the iPhone then?”

            A smile plays across Professor Bates lips. Considering his usually stoic demeanor, the smile seems almost warped. “And what makes you say that Mr. Reimers?”

            “Well,” says the boy, apparently named Reimers, just as slowly as before. As though he too is trying to puzzle out the logic of the piece. My mind eases some, perhaps I am not the only one who got a bit off track… “In the book he talks about the most common personal computer of the next decade will be a digital cellular phone. He talks about how it will have many features such as being ‘as portable as a watch and as personal as a wallet. They will recognize speech and navigate streets, open the door and start the car, collect the mail and the news and the pay check, connecting to thousands of databases of all kinds…” When he finishes, he looks towards Bates expectantly. We all do. Instead of answer though, he simply continues to smile his deformed little smile.

            “Are you saying that the iPhone or typical cellular phone can open the door and start the car?” he finally says.

            “No,” says Reimers, annoyance coloring his tone. “But portable, that’s a given. Speech recognition and GPS are also common features. Almost all phones connect to the web now, which might as well be collecting the mail, news, and paycheck. And I mean, connecting to thousands of databases of all kinds…again, that’s the web.”

            “So what is your point Mr. Reimers?”

            “My point is…so, is this technological collapse he keeps talking about, the death of TV and everything, is that still to come?”

            “Or?” says Bates, now looking to the class. Feeling distinctly like I am being both baited and patronized, I raise my hand. “Ms. Fields?”

            “Or it has already come,” I say, my voice warbling a bit. I seriously need to get better at talking in groups. “Gilder talks about how we are going to become wireless and unless television goes digital, it’s going to be lost. Well, digital cable is extremely common now, pay per view, broadband. It’s almost rare to find the old realms of dial up and basic television. I mean, the government is even going to be making a national upgrade to cable later this year.”

            “Cable or broadband?” asks Bates.

            My mind blanks. Damn it. “Cable?”

            He smiles again. His smiles are not smiles at all but decidingly sneers. “So, that doesn’t have anything to do with your argument?”

            “I think it does,” says Felicity, my token friend in this hell class. “I mean, maybe they are not updating to broadband but, they are updating beyond basic cable which is what Gilder is sorta talking about. The idea that TV is losing touch and that without interaction and a variety of channels, it is going to die.”

            “Exactly,” I say, casting a grateful look at Felicity. “So what I’m saying is, he was all about the digital. Computers and networks being good, dial up and television being bad.”

            “Perhaps you are oversimplifying?” asks Bates. “What do you as a class think of Ms. Fields argument? Has the technological collapse of TV already happened?”

            Zombies again. Bates stares at the group of us and without focusing, they all stare back. I raise my hand again. “Can I just say that I don’t mean the collapse happened, I am not even sure he talked about a collapse. I just mean, we already have the phasing out of the technologies he said were going to die.”

            Reimers raises his hand. “Yeah, with that I agree.”

            “Professor?” says the same girl toward the front who began the original discussion. “This is unrelated but, I didn’t get the use of the T.S. Elliot poem on page 79? The Rock?”

            “What was unclear about the passage?” he asks, seemingly exhausted by our conversation.

            “Well. So the poem goes: “Where is the life we have lost in living? Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge; Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?” and then he says “One might add: Where is the information we have lost in data?”

            “Perhaps that is connecting to his earlier point on the page Ms. Maundrell. Looking still on page 79, he states ‘Computers multiply data; in fact, one study indicated that data would double 19 times between 1990 and 2000. How will anyone be able to find the information needed in this huge haystack? The world is already choking on data’.”

            My brain feels slightly like it’s struggling to understand but I can’t imagine why when again, the words seem to click right and the logic is right there in front of me. “Ah…google?” I ask.

            Snickers again, although Bates doesn’t respond this time. “Anyone care to comment on the idea of the 2 minute rule of television and Gilder’s views there?”

            “Outdated,” says Felicity. “He talks about how TV has to keep things interesting and compressed into two minute news stories so people stay interested which is a mistake because, people aren’t interacting and therefore aren’t interested in the two minute stories.”

            “So, what does this mean to newspapers? Chapter 6 please,” says Bates. We all flip to the page.  “Someone underline a good passage they would like to share with the class?”

            “Page 138,” says Reimers. Pages turn. “The secret of the success of the newspaper, grasped by Roger Fidler, is that it is in practice a personal medium, used very differently by each customer. Newspapers rely on the intelligence of the reader. Although the editor selects and shapes the matter to be delivered, readers choose, peruse, sort, queue, and quaff the news and advertising copy at their own pace and volition.”

            “Good,” says Bates. I raise my hand. He nods in approval.

            “Gilder also says that newspapers are safe from computers though which, I don’t think I agree with. I mean, they are better off then television is when compared to computers but, at this point in the reading, it seems like most technology is. On page 139,” the rustle of the single page flipping makes me pause. “um, so on 139, he says ‘Computers will soon blow away the broadcast television industry. But computers pose no such threat to newspapers. Indeed, the computer is a perfect complement to the newspaper. It enables the existing news industry to deliver its product in real time. It hugely increases the quantity of information that can be made available, including archives, maps, charts, and other supporting material. It opens the way to upgrading the news with full-screen photographs and videos. While hugely enhancing the richness and timeliness of the news, however, it empowers readers to use the "paper" in the same way they do today -- to browse and select stories and advertisements at their own time and pace.’”

            Bates looks at me in confusion. “What part of that don’t you agree with Ms. Fields? That seems to be how things are today.”

            “Just that, well, so television is now available on-line which may be it’s saving grace then. Because, that’s how it is evolving to stay safe. So then, when the newspaper is no longer on PAPER, isn’t that the same? Just it’s way of evolving? Which is…the computer then? Not the newspaper?”

            “So…” says Bates, but this time I can tell he is urging me forward rather then mocking my thoughts.

            “So then…in my opinion, Gilder is making exceptions for the adaptations of other media forms but not television. Which just makes it seem like a biases to prove his point.”

            “Excellent opinion,” says Professor Bates. I smile and shrug into my seat. “Who agrees with Ms. Fields?”

            The dead eyes stare forward blankly but I couldn’t care less. Cuz me? Yeah. I’m kind of getting it.

Life After Television (Megan Skelton)

http://www.users.muohio.edu/skeltomm/ims%20201/lat.html

Life After Television (Megan Skelton)2

in case my first link didn't work for anyone

http://www.scribd.com/doc/7769377/Cartoon

Cartoon
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Life After Television-Andrea and Jennifer's Response

American Hare
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Andrea and I collaborated on a response for George Gilder's book Life After Television. We wrote articles that are published in the a newspaper in the year 2020.

Here is our response:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/7743350/American-Hare?secret_password=207tfw9wz2x30t92qeuv

One of the articles talks about new technologies that are available. I found some inspiration from this website on conceptual computers. Here is the site where you can read about one example http://computerworld.name/future-conceptual-computer/Link

Chelsea Clements' Response to Gilder

I found this book long,  but still somewhat interesting since I am going into digital marketing and advertising. As I read, I wrote down direct quotes and my reaction to some of the more dead-on things and ideas that I thought were way off. I'll share some of those first:
Prologue:
  • "Cell phones will be as portable as a watch and as personal as a wallet; they will recognize speech and navigate streets (If the navigation on my phone wasn't $5.99/month I'd get VZNavigator), open the door and start the car (I'm sure there could be something like this soon since remote controls can start cars), collect the email (I have my email synced!) and the news (You bet I am on CNN on my phone) and the paycheck (I text Chase, Chase texts me back)"
  • "Computers nets afford peer-to-peer interactivity rather than top-down broadcasts" 
  •  “Telephone companies can survive only to the extent that they transform themselves into digital computer networks" They haven't and that's why people are starting to not have landlines. Cell phones have obviously transformed into digital computers networks and have made landlines cost inefficient. Why pay for long distance on a homeline when you can call long distance for free on your cell?
Ch 6
  • "Computers pose not threat to newspapers. Indeed the Computer is the perfect complement to the newspaper" This is just wrong. Gilder talks about how the internet will allow the delivery of the product to go directly to the customer, cutting out the cost of the middleman. Gilder failed to acknowledge the business model that people expect from information from the internet: FREE. Newspapers are failing because people don't need to by them anymore. I can read a full version of almost any newspaper in the country online for free. Yes the computer can be a compliment to the newspaper, but so many news services have come about that are not tied to a newspaper. 
  • Fat Panel - This concept reminded me a lot of Amazon's Kindle, the wireless reading device that comes on a flat panel portable screen. Using Kindle, a user can instantly download a book, magazine, blog or newspaper
  • "Everybody will become information providers as well as consumers" - iReporting/Citizen Reporting has become crucial. These unpaid "journalists" are able to report news  and events far before a reporter can, considering it has to go through editors and filters before appearing in a paper.
Afterword
  • "To make the TV boob tube into an interactive hive of theater, museum, classroom, banking system, shopping center, post office and communicator is contrary to the nature of the box" Are we are marketers overlooking the possibilities of TV as being an interactive medium or have we simply taken the good parts of TV and incorporating them into the internet. I don't even have to turn on a TV to enjoy my favorite shows, so why should I have to endure crappy time slots and unappealing advertising that is not applicable to me just to watch The Office? 
All in all, Gilder was pretty correct in his thoughts about the future, however I believe his thoughts on newspapers was fairly off. 

Monday, November 3, 2008

Nick Engel Gilder Response

In Life After Television by George Gilder we see predictions for the future world with the new technology of the computer and a greater networked world. Life After Television follows the theme talked about in our class of new media and how it affects our life. For my response paper I would like to evaluate some of the predictions and claims made by George Gilder and talk about my feelings about the accuracy of those predictions.

One of the first predictions made by George Gilder is that the telephone networks will die. According to Gilder, “All the assumptions of telephony will have to give way to radically different assumptions. Telephony will die.” This assumption by Gilder in my view is becoming true in some ways and in others is not. In my view the internet has decreased the need for the telephone and the invention of the cellular phone has greatly decreased the need for a home phone. But, in business there is still a great need for telephone technology in order to conduct business. I can see a future where all business is done through online technology but can never see the telephone completely dying. The telephone offers a more personal touch for communication then the internet and may be replaced by voice over internet or web conferencing but see the telephone as a vital tool in our workforce today.

The next prediction made by Gilder is in relation to television technology. Gilder predicts that “television networks are optimized for transmission of expensive centralized programming in real time to millions of dumb terminals. But the dominant traffic of the future will be store-and-forward transmission of digital data among millions of super smart telecomputers, or “teleputers” These machines will be capable of summoning or sending films or files, news stories and clips, courses and catalogs anywhere in the world” I found this prediction to be one of the most interesting because I feel like internet video is one of the most important inventions of recent history. While sites like YouTube have not eliminated television as Gilder knew it, it has created a strong alternative. The greatest ability of sending films and clips over networks is that the viewer is not limited to watching a program and only one time they can watch it anytime and anywhere. This increases personalization and the spread of information greatly and gives views more interaction then television that Gilder envisioned ending.

Another prediction made by Gilder is that the film business will move to be more specialized much like books and magazines have become. Gilder states that, “Just as digital desktop publishing equipment unleashed thousands of new text publishing companies, so the new digital desktop video publishing will unleash thousands of new filmmakers. The video business will increasingly resemble not the current film business, in which output is a hundred or so movies a year, but the book business, in which some 55,000 new hardcover titles are published annually in the U.S. alone.” This is another prediction that I can envision being fulfilled in the future but see little progress today. We can argue that more independent type films are being published today thanks to new computer technology making the process easier, but the film business is still dominated by the major companies and a few hundred or so movies a year being popular. Some success has been made by independent film makers breaking into the mainstream thanks to cheaper technology. For example, the show It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia was made by unknown producers that created a pilot that was shot for about $200. I believe we will see more of these types of shows and films becoming popular.

Finally, one of the main predictions by Gilder is that the newspaper business will survive even as these new technologies have created complementary substitutes. According to Gilder, “the secret of the success of the newspaper, grasped by Roger Fidler, is that it is in practice a personal medium, used very differently by each customer. Newspapers rely on the intelligence of the reader.” He also goes on to discuss how the newspaper can evolve with the new technology like tablets and cellular and wireless updates. I feel like this is a pretty accurate description of the newspaper business. Currently, I feel that the newspaper business is in a transition period between paper and online technology. For example, in Cincinnati we have seen the staff of the Cincinnati Enquirer decrease while the other main paper The Cincinnati Post has ceased publication. With the promise of new tablet type newspaper being updated wirelessly the newspaper as we currently know it could be saved. If this technology cannot be perfected I envision more newspapers falling and more people relying on internet technology as their sole information source for news.

In conclusion, I was impressed with George Gilder’s book Life after Television” and enjoyed the concept of the book. I was also impressed with how many of his predictions have become true and how many of his predictions are becoming true. I feel that this book fits into our overall message from this class and was a good read on new media.